Notebook 4 - Do the Joins Hold, and Is There a Signal?

Published 2 April 2026

agri-weather-yield-drivers notebooks validation drought-risk signal-testing

Notebook 4 brings the evaluated sources together. I check whether the joins still hold and whether the expected relationship between sandy soil, moisture stress and yield anomalies is visible at district level.

I use those checks to decide whether the project is ready for a full run on real data.

Business lane: Risk & Opportunity Framing Technical lane: Validation & Signal Reliability

Interpretation boundary.

I am checking whether the signal is measurable and stable enough to justify a full run. A causal explanation would need a separate, stricter analysis.

Validation scope
Join completeness and first signal checks
Signal family
Sandy soil vs moisture stress vs yield anomalies
Delivery output
Evidence package for go/no-go on full analysis run
4

Validation: Coverage and Signal

Check multi-table completeness and estimate sand-moisture relationships with district-level yield anomalies.

Coverage matrixCorrelation testDistrict-level diagnostics

The notebook is still in refinement. Its current checks give me an initial view of whether the main hypothesis holds together at district level.

Core notebook sequence completed: 67%

Key output

The current checks support continuing to the full analysis: the core joins remain largely intact, and the expected direction appears in multiple districts. The table below shows what I take from each check at this stage.

CheckpointOutcomePortfolio implication
Join completeness auditCore joins remain largely intactDownstream metrics can be compared consistently
First signal passExpected direction is visible in multiple districtsWorth proceeding to full real-data assembly
Geographic coherenceSignal clusters are not randomly scatteredSupports practical communication to stakeholders

What I am checking next

The next notebook uses live public data for full scoring. I want you to be able to read its rankings alongside these coverage and signal checks, so the limits of the inputs remain visible.

Open notebook source