Notebook 5 - The Real-Data Risk Run

Published 1 April 2026

agri-weather-yield-drivers notebooks risk-modeling feature-engineering wheat

Notebook 5 runs the project on real inputs and produces district-level wheat risk scores. This is the core analytical output in the current release wave: the point where all the dull upstream checks start to look useful.

Here I assemble features, score districts, and frame the ranking as a triage tool for deeper review.

Business lane: Risk & Opportunity Framing Technical lane: Risk Modeling

Executive summary.

This is the first notebook where upstream pipeline decisions become a stakeholder-facing ranked output. The technical preparation work turns into district signals that can support prioritization, not replace judgment.

Primary output
District-level wheat risk scores
Signal components
Climate stress indicators and soil-linked modifiers
Delivery format
Ranked outputs plus map-ready geospatial layers
5

Analysis with Real Data

Engineer climate and soil-linked features, estimate district risk scores, and visualize geographic concentration of risk.

Feature engineeringRisk scoringNUTS-3 maps
Core notebook sequence completed: 83%

Key output

The notebook reproduces the expected sandy-soil drought pattern on live data and generates ranked district-level risk outputs for interpretation. The ranking is only useful when it travels with its explanation.

Decision framing: rankings are intended for triage and investigation, not as a final policy recommendation in isolation.

Output layerPurposeTypical consumer
District risk scorePrioritize zones for deeper reviewProduct, strategy, and operations stakeholders
Feature contribution sliceExplain why districts rank higher or lowerData and analytics teams
Map layer exportSupport communication and review in geospatial toolsMixed business and technical audiences

Explainability is part of product quality: rankings need interpretable evidence so teams know what they are looking at before they act on it.

- Model communication principle

Interpretation boundary

This is a screening layer. It can point to places worth deeper review, but it needs to travel with the feature notes, coverage checks, and validation caveats from the earlier notebooks.

Open notebook source

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