Notebook 5 - The Real-Data Risk Run

Published 1 April 2026

agri-weather-yield-drivers notebooks risk-modeling feature-engineering wheat

Notebook 5 combines the climate and soil inputs into district-level wheat risk scores. This is where I use the earlier source and coverage checks to build the features behind the ranking.

You can inspect the scores and map layers to find districts worth a closer look. I treat the ranking as a screening tool for further investigation.

Business lane: Risk & Opportunity Framing Technical lane: Risk Modeling

Executive summary.

The ranked output helps you prioritize districts for closer review. Its usefulness depends on understanding the input features and their coverage limits.

Primary output
District-level wheat risk scores
Signal components
Climate stress indicators and soil-linked modifiers
Delivery format
Ranked outputs plus map-ready geospatial layers
5

Analysis with Real Data

Engineer climate and soil-linked features, estimate district risk scores, and visualize geographic concentration of risk.

Feature engineeringRisk scoringNUTS-3 maps
Core notebook sequence completed: 83%

Key output

The run reproduces the expected sandy-soil drought pattern on live public data and produces ranked district risk outputs. I include feature contributions and map layers so you can inspect why a district ranks higher or lower.

Decision framing: rankings are intended for triage and investigation, not as a final policy recommendation in isolation.

Output layerPurposeTypical consumer
District risk scorePrioritize zones for deeper reviewProduct, strategy, and operations stakeholders
Feature contribution sliceExplain why districts rank higher or lowerData and analytics teams
Map layer exportSupport communication and review in geospatial toolsMixed business and technical audiences

I want you to see what contributes to a district’s score before using it to guide a decision.

- Model communication principle

Interpretation boundary

Use the scores to choose where to investigate next. Read them with the feature notes, coverage checks and validation caveats from the earlier notebooks; they are not enough for a policy recommendation on their own.

Open notebook source

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